This report is a part of a feasibility assessment for the use of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) as a strategy for HIV prevention in Maricopa County. Specifically, we attempt to produce an estimate of the number of individuals at the county level who represent potential PrEP candidates according to a modified version of the CDC guidelines. We conclude and recommend the following:
- PrEP is a viable HIV prevention strategy for Maricopa County. PrEP has been shown to be effective in clinical trials, and PrEP programs are being implemented in other states as well as other parts of Arizona.
- The CDC guidelines for PrEP eligibility outline clinical assessment criteria for three groups of individuals: men who have sex with other men (MSM), injection drug users (IDU), and high-risk heterosexuals (HRH). Using a modified set of the CDC guidelines, county-level data can be used to reach an estimate of the size of these populations. Estimates of the size of this population have been performed at the national level and high-prevalence urban areas, but not for medium-prevalence settings. Developing a methodology to assess population-level HIV risk for medium-prevalence populations would be significant progress in understanding and addressing the epidemic in the many low- and medium-prevalent states.
- We estimate that among target populations, 2,092 – 11,896 people in Maricopa County would be eligible for PrEP. This includes 1,117 – 9,133 MSM and 975 – 2,763 IDU. Programs seeking to promote PrEP as an HIV prevention strategy should take into account the size of this population in order to effectively plan and implement efforts to promote PrEP to potential candidates as well as health providers, and enroll patients in care.
Download the full report here: Maricopa County PrEP Estimate Draft v3